The solution to this particular conundrum seems rather straightforward;
their interventions helped shape the ‘shape of things to come’. Still, all intelligence agencies (as far as
INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY 000
we know) failed to predict the end of the Cold War, despite a pre-occupation with it. However, there
was no shortage of social science explanation afterwards, when turning points could more easily be
isolated and causality inferred from the evidence – the rise of Gorbachev; the Soviet withdrawal from
regional conflicts, particularly Afghanistan; developments in arms control; the emancipation of Eastern
Europe; and the reunification of Germany.0